Tuesday, January 19, 2016

2016 Predictive Intelligence

Predictive Intelligence

Political and military intelligence is a tough business.  The most difficult category to get right and hence the most fraught with weasel words is the category of predictive intelligence.  This means correctly calling some future event to a remarkable degree of accuracy in terms of timing, events and outcome.

For 2016, I am predicting a few things.  These items will have to be reviewed next January to see how wide from the mark I was.  If I were a hedge fund type, if I made 51% correct analysis, I'd be a major player on Wall Street.  So, here they are in no particular order:

1-  Hillary Clinton will be muscled aside by Bernie Sanders by the end of March, 2016.

2-  Iran and Saudi Arabia will engage in open warfare, causing the price of oil to skyrocket in October, 2016.  Just in time to scare the bejeezus out of the American electorate.  Crude prices will edge upward of $150 a barrel.  The United States will have to go back to escorting crude tankers in the Gulf, leading to the loss or serious damage of a major surface combatant.

3-  Bill Clinton will inseminate a vastly younger woman.

4-  The forced integration of LGBTQ persons into the U.S. Military will find a paucity of takers to fill the ranks.

5-  Eastern Ukraine will be absorbed into Russia.

6-  Taiwan will be handed over to the People's Republic of China in trade for a level of debt forgiveness of U.S. trade imbalance.

7-  Widespread yet low level civil war breaks out across the EU as locals defend themselves against the impositions of the invading crimmigrants.

8-  ISIS is removed from Syria as Russian and Iranian support are ramped up.

9- The price of a gallon of unleaded regular will be $5.00, with widespread shortages due to lack of domestic refining capacity.  Diesel fuel will soar to $6.00 a gallon.

10- At least 3 American cities will experience mass unrest, looting and violence on par with 1968.

11- Donald Trump wins the nomination.  The Republican party ends up self-dissolving as a result as the donor and consultant class go to war with one another over who is to blame.  They will settle on blaming the voting public (seem to already have). Donald Trump then goes on to administer a brutal curb-stomping to Team Sanders.  VP picks?  Despite the current tension, Trump goes for Cruz.  Sanders may get stuck with O'Malley, if the situation is dire enough, the DNC will hand select and parachute into the process someone of stature, like Biden or perhaps a woman to try and pander to that electorate.

12-  Hillary Clinton, after getting edged out of the nomination, tries to retire quietly to life as a grandma.  her hopes dashed, she will do what she can to get Chelsea lined up for an eventual kick at the can.  The DoJ, given FBI input recommending charges be filed for the classified information handling issues (that would entail any normal human going to prison for the rest of their natural life), refuses to prosecute.  The head of the FBI resigns in disgust, as do several other notable figures in the hierarchy.  American legal circles are dealt a staggering blow, much like the Titanic hitting an iceberg.  It was not immediately apparent that it would sink.  Yet sink, it did.

13- Muslims will be recognized as the apex minority, all other grievance groups will fall to a lower precedence.  People will flock to Muslim grievance membership (saying the shuhuda, adopting Muslim garb, etc), recognizing the tangible benefit it imparts in employment selection and discrimination suits.  It will remain an unmentioned question what the fate of homosexuals and lesbians, let alone the transgendered and whatever else who are or become Muslim, will be.  It also remains an interesting question- what will the feminists say?  I suspect that they will run into a wall of cognitive dissonance.

14- Expect the first domestic ISIS cell to kidnap and execute an American citizen on American soil.  The media and the "elite" will explain how the victim "had it coming".

15- Expect domestic terror attacks to start to include VBIEDs.  Not all of these will be by Muslim ISIS affiliates or aspirants. 

This list covers a broad enough range of topics to be interesting to enough of an audience.  I hope to see you here in January, 2017 to discuss just how wrong and off base I was on any of these points.  Believe you me, I'd like to be off on at least a few of these.


Anonymous said...

Some of these made me shudder. Some made me cheer.

I expect you'll easily get over 51% correct.

Brian said...

Sounds like si fi.

Anonymous said...

You have a good article and some good predictions. But it is sad to say that no matter how dire the situation gets here, or abroad, the fact is I just don't care anymore. Maybe there are millions more out there that have the same numbed attitude I do: The hell with all of it! Fed up! Heard it all before (speaking of the politicians)!

BigDaddy said...

Interesting perspective. I like #3 as comedic relief from some of these that ring eerily true.

Anonymous said...

I'm afraid you predict a "rosier" picture than will occur. The momentum of self destruction is too great.

Partyzantski said...

Big Daddy,

I am celebrating early on #3, as the likelihood of that just went up by a few orders of magnitude.
It appears that Bill Clinton is giving a speech coincidentally near a Pornography Convention in Vegas. I am sure that the former President can find his way there with no outside assistance.
And Hillary will just bury her sorrows in a few gallons of Rocky Road ice cream to make the pain fade.