Saturday, June 3, 2017

Uncomfortable Truth-Telling in "Tet Take Two" - the Left singularity approacheth - PZ's commentary

*Note:  This is a repost of an article published in 2016.

*WARNING* ~ The following commentary of Matt Bracken's predictive essay is penned by StopShouting Blog contributor Partyzantzki, retired Force Protection and Anti-terrorism officer and USMC field grade Intelligence Officer (0202).  The commentary contains graphic images that may be disturbing to many people, and is NOT suitable for viewing by children~

Note from the Editor, YTZ4Mee: This is a long (3000 word) essay and well notated and deeply researched. Grab a cup of coffee and bookmark this page if needed. Please take the time to read it thoroughly and carefully, including the embedded links to more information.  Think hard about what is being communicated to you.  Read Matt Bracken's essay and John Robb's excellent work in addition to PZ's analysis and comments. If you find the information valuable - even if frightening - PLEASE pass along and share.  Normally, I would break this essay into three installments, but it should be apparent to all that the Islamists are emboldened and stepping up their game and I felt the urgency to publish in full, now.  Time is running out.  Share, Educate and Act.  Thank you!

Uncomfortable Truth-Telling in "Tet Take Two" 
The Left singularity approacheth

Having good cause to re-read this excellent essay after an excellent lunch, I would like to take the opportunity to do all that I can to urge Readers across the land and Europa to READ IT,  and read all of it.  Get your friends to read it.

Why?  The odds of not insignificant portions of this going live this year are likely.

NYE 2016 Cologne, Germany... "someone" was doing the mass raping...

By "likely", I mean 70% confidence level by this CIA analyst, as described and defined by the following paper "The Definition of Some Estimative Expressions", backed up by my own first hand observations living in Paris and traveling to secondary and tertiary burgs throughout Western and Central Europe recently as well as feedback and first hand observations from my contacts in Germany and France.

The Cathedral at Cologne is an iconic and potent symbol of Western Civilization
What leads me to that conclusion?  Closely follow news out of Europe, from European sources providing feed to Gates of Vienna and other like-minded blogs and you will see why.  Understand that 2016 is THE pivotal American election cycle, more so than Lincoln vs. the divided Democratic and multi party opposition in 1860.  Keep in mind that the electoral pattern of 1860 remains evident to the present day in sectional politics, it appears that Americans have not "gotten over it" or regard the matter as "settled".  There exists an equally wide social schism within Europe.
In her 2014 NYE address to the nation, Merkel demonized citizens protesting the Islamic infiltration into Europe
I would like to introduce you to a few themes that Bracken makes crystal clear in his essay, points that many may find uncomfortable to contemplate. But contemplate, you must.

Islam/International Socialism/Nationalism are 3 manifestations of political power that are in a dance of death.  The 3 will become 2 through the elimination of 1.  This is simple group dynamics, somebody is always on the outs in a group of 3.  Informal alliances can be seen in young children, it is far more serious in adults.  International Socialists and Islam are clearly in alliance to effect the demise of the vestiges of nationalism.  What other purpose does the tsunami of military age Muslim males have in Europa?  Are they there for the free education, a bottle of wine and some baguettes?  Their actions to date suggest rather strongly, "No".

 WW3 is knocking at the door.  The "Color Revolution" template as developed by Gene Sharp and lavishly funded by the US Department of State and private citizen George Soros has run roughshod through the Arab world.  It has wrecked Ukraine.  All of these conflicts are linked by geopolitics and the desire to cut the Russians out of the Natural Gas supply business and let the Qataris, an American vassal state, in on the action.  That is why Syria is in ruinous flames.  That is why Ukraine is in its death throes.  This is why the 2008 Georgia/Russia war was fought. If WW3 cooks off, and with a seeming thousand lunatics trying to throw lit matches into that puddle of cultural fuel, it looks like it will - at which point, hold on to your hats.
"Colour Revolutions" globally, map courtesy of Wiki

The Tet Offensive of 1968, which Bracken named his essay after, is an apt analogy for the coming wave of terror in Europa. Perpetrated by the freshly imported masses that are feeding off the sustenance of native Europeans, busy raping all and sundry and generally making what was a cultural center a land of misery and fear.  Where in 1968, the Tet Offensive also served the purpose of eliminating the Viet Cong (they were useful idiots all along! Quelle surprise!), a new Tet-style large scale, broad front offensive in 2016 will see the scurrillous hordes elevated, given succor and even legal standing in the lands they have plundered.  Angela Merkel has already sold her people out, what stops her from this?  The traitor elite class will see to it, hoping to be eaten last or even becoming one with the new "Borg" centered on Mecca.

Multi-polar, sub national conflicts are a conflict structure that enables some of the most horrific human behavior.  Consider if you will the former Yugoslavia as a recent enough example.  Or Sudan and the Janjaweed.  Zimbabwe against the Boer farmers.  These were wars to consolidate political power through ethnic domination and extirpation of the "other". 

A sobering look at America from an ethnic map view (go ahead - this is 2010 census data, it covers the whole country and is zoomable) will reveal that America is at least as fractured and potentially unstable as the former Yugoslavia.  Is there any functional difference between the following two maps of distribution?  Consider the ethnic fault lines that come into stark relief with this map.  That was 2010.  It is now 2016.  What will it be like in 2020, the election cycle after next?

 Note well that the former Yugoslavia map is vastly simplified for the sake of that map.  The actual complex of enclaves and exclaves is an intricate map of physical & cultural fault lines.   This article explains in depth the convoluted nature of European exclaves and enclaves.

The conduct of the wars in the area formerly controlled by Yugoslavia are not noted for gentleness.  Some data points to consider are Operation STORM, where 200,000 Serbs were made refugees.  Despite the incessant propaganda, do you think that the Serbs were the real "bad guys" there? Place names like Srebrenicia and Racak escape mention in American schools, but understand that the deaths of a "mere" 45 people (ethnic Albanians) in the Racak massacre was enough to get a NATO peace keeping force deployed.  If one ponders the annual butcher bill in places such as Baltimore, why no similar effort there?

It makes one pause to consider what the shape of America will look like, should this ignite here.  It has been forced in Baltimore, in Ferguson and other locales by the elite handlers, to no real result (yet).  The legal aftermath of a full-on intramural war in America may see court records like this, with any group or person reflected in its clinically brief summary. One thing is for sure, multi-polar and sub national conflicts are extremely brutal and dehumanizing.

The school takeover/hostage/rape/slaughter at Beslan was a 4th Generation War (4GW) move, geared to hit on psychological points of pain (vulnerable women and children).  Mike Vanderboegh, has a "Gold Standard" explanation of 4GW at his blog, Sipsey Street Irregulars. The Beslan attack/siege/mass atrocity was planned specifically to engage the global media to further the murderous, mass-media message of fear and intimidation sent by the Mohammadeans.

American schools and authorities are in no way prepared for when this style of event takes place here.  It was successful there and then, it will get emulated here in the future.  When school assaults stop being the province of pasty white psychiatric patients like Dylan Klebold and the execrable  shooter at Sandy Hook, that is when that violence gear will shift into overdrive.  Pay attention for this indicator.

School children murdered in Beslan attack
The lies we may tell ourselves to get to sleep after knowing what the future portends are the worst of all.  Surely, those "every town for gun safety" approved "gun free zone" signs and non-violence school codes will stop 7th century madmen.  Sure they will.  Go back to sleep.  Nothing to see here as the progressive opium dulls the senses.  Good intentions, progressive platitudes and virtue signalling count for less than nothing when innocents get slaughtered, they cause irreparable harm by lulling you into a false sense of security.   Consider that these sorts of events happen largely IN these fantasy safe zones, IN progressive bastions like Colorado (Columbine), Virginia (Virginia Tech, not a pasty white psych job, but a Korean) and Connecticut (Sandy Hook).  Ponder over why that is so.

The Mumbai attack managed to spread the terror out over more area than the point attack at Beslan.  Coordinated with off-site handlers and directors, it was engineered for maximum international media coverage.  Bracken's coining of the phrase likening the drive behind these groups as like that of a swarm of jellyfish is an apt one.  It is a Command and Control (C2) model that does not need the operatives to send questions to a headquarters, they just do as bid via SMS or one way calls on a burner phone that only require they answer the phone when it rings and act upon the direction.

When Command and Control (C2) is a simple, one way, omni-directional imperative that is broadcast from the mosque or the cell phone tower, it is difficult to see how all the electronic warfare in the world or NSA wizardry can jam/degrade the signal.  Many events of what are to come likely will have NO discernible command inputs whatsoever, much like a flotilla of jellyfish responding to simple environmental stimuli, or even biological drives of a primordial sort.

A book that I found very informative on organizational topologies was The Starfish and the Spider: Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations, by Brafman and Beckstrom. There are essential and useful bits in this book that I may cover in an upcoming book review.  It is germane to the topic of 4th Generation Warfare, but is superficially about business organization and commercial success.  You can buy a copy through the link below if you wish:

The idea that NATO and the rest of Western Europe will turn inward for survival is not a foregone conclusion.  Surely, they will have to redirect resources and change security postures.  Will they do it to halt the juggernaut of Muslim onslaught, or will they fold like the iconic tolerant progressives Quisling and Chamberlain, selling out the hopeful?  The 5th columnists are already in place, they have been busy rotting and gnawing away at the timbers of Western civilization visibly since the 1960's like so many 200 pound termites.  The analogy is more accurate than I am comfortable with; that of large, translucent skinned insectoids with sightless eyes incessantly chewing away at the cultural fibre of Western Civilization.  In the mind's eye, picture what once was as well as your liberties being slowly mashed in countless, thoughtless maws.  You can see the pulp being slowly moved through peristaltic motion beneath the shiny, translucent skins of armies of bureaucratic termites, onward to the dung heap of history.  One may mentally pause and wonder if Brussels and the EU apparatchiks are more of a threat to civilization than Mecca and the Mohammadean multitudes.  I'll take choice "C", which is BOTH.

While much of what I have written here is mere riff on Bracken's excellent essay, absorb for a moment the simple math that Bracken has laid out regarding ISIS infiltration in Europa and the potential for violence. Bracken postulates 80,000 ISIS infiltrators in Europa, which I concur is not an unreasonable guesstimate.  If they task organize to the same degree as they did for the Paris operation, they have the capability to execute 10,000 Paris events, if not simultaneously, then temporally clustered for maximum shock effect (the shock and awe pigeon comes home to roost).  In post-event analysis, it is apparent Paris was more like Mumbai  in the "Jellyfish C2" model of outside remote control.

Consider for a moment what simple linear extrapolation from the damage wrought by the jihadist attacks on Paris with an embedded, ready to go jihadi force of 80,000 pre-positioned throughout Europa under the cover of "refugees" translates to.

The generally accepted reports of 130 civilian deaths, 368 wounded and 90 seriously so, with 7 of 8 attackers killed as the casualty tally from the Paris attacks would mean 1,300,000 or more civilian deaths arising from an embedded jihadi force of 80,000 pre-positioned infiltrators. The actual body count would be significantly higher as they refined their Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTP) to maximize loss of life and liberty.

Take a moment with that.

3,680,000 wounded (how many hospital beds and surgical suites does Europa have?) Of the wounded, 900,000 "seriously"... how many trauma centers and ER staff does Europa have?  Cynical and predatory investors might go long on refrigerated storage and backhoes/bulldozers, shovels and hydrated lime.  Of note, 7 of 8 dead attackers would mean 70,000 dead jihadists, with 10,000 left on the loose to mount the next wave.  70,000 is the equivalent to 3.5 American Infantry Divisions, counting all the cooks, drivers, bakers and candle stick makers.

Imagine what will happen if even a portion of that gets to the point where they are crossing the line of departure. Europa in that case WILL burn.  Violence on that level would create a backlash (and rightly so) that will be effectively unreckonable in any book keeping, as eye-popping as my mathematical musings above.  As they say in Texas, "mess with the bull, get the horns".  Central Europe seems to be getting the message to its people on this, sales of firearms are soaring in Switzerland and Austria.  Militias are forming in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. Western Europe ironically may be a source of white Christian refugees into these very places by this time next year.
Anti-Islam protests in Warsaw, Poland: Terrorism?  Islam? No, Thank You!
Use of firearms is actually quite inefficient at mass casualty and destruction.  The appearance of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) as assessed in the Bracken essay are a logical, if horrific, milestone on the road to perdition in Europe.  Several hundred pounds of home made high explosives will take out buildings (see the 1999 Russian apartment building bombings in Buynaksk, Moscow, Vologdonsk that led Russia into the 2nd Chechen War, even The Murrah Federal Building attack by domestic terrorists in 1995 in Oklahoma.).  Civil authorities are not configured physically or mentally to handle multiples of these in a single day.  This is coming.  You cannot "Force Protect" or architecturally "design" your way out of this.

The VBIED was used quite effectively by the IRA to blackmail England into closing out the war in Northern Ireland.  London and its insurers could not withstand the £350 million worth of damage from a single VBIED in Bishopsgate, the heart of the City of London, as an example you should expect here soon as well.

The city of Hama is an example of existential brutality between a secular government (Hafez al Assad) and the Muslim Brotherhood.  It is difficult to find balanced accounts of what went on there, but this New Yorker article covers some of the events and background .  The author asks if Assad's brother, Rifat al Assad regretted the bombing (not mentioned is the bulldozing and shelling... and infantry waves, mass shootings and possible use of poison gas) used to quell Hama in 1982.  Tellingly, he replied "We couldn't have succeeded without doing it."


Consider the implications of Muslim Brotherhood infiltration into the very heart of American Government and institutions.  Just how affiliated is Huma Abedin? What about John Brennan? What about the several Congresscritters with observed leanings and sympathies?

These are vital issues that America can no longer turn a blind eye to.  Consider then all the Muslim Brotherhood connected commissars and functionary drones who never break squelch.  Think about my 200 pound termite visual, and read on.

It will take some time for Europa to understand that this is the level of force needed to extirpate the cancer that they have naively imported at the behest of the Satanic EU.  The same applies here, in America... on a slightly extended time line. Bracken nails this particular point masterfully in his essay.  In reading this and absorbing it, you can either deny that Hama happened this way (go back and re-read that den of right wingers' scribblings over at the New Yorker), or you can wrap your mind around 10-40 THOUSAND people getting wiped out, for the survival of the secular state.  Either "them or us", quite literally.  This point cannot be emphasized enough. (~a sidebar point of thought here, was the Muslim brotherhood uprising in Hama in 1982 the practice run of what we are seeing in Syria today?  TPTB failed then, and are trying it on again?)

Peaceful de-escalation is improbable due to the continual influx of fresh meat to the picnic in Europa.  I am open to dissenting comments on this, as I would like to see some optimism.  The actions necessary to return them via deportation are not currently politically viable, but with every atrocity and mass gang rape that day lurches closer.

The primary directive that the seething tide brings with it is almost ant-like (the Jellyfish command model) in its binary simplicity... get to Europa.  Make trouble.  Destroy.  All this, while European parliaments are singing happy songs of childhood and hoping for warm milk and cookies for nap time.  If they do not face reality soon, that is a nap that they will not wake up from.  They will be fortunate in such circumstances to have a latter day Antigone sprinkle dirt on their rapidly bloating mortal vessels to help them get to the afterlife.  Europeans have the time and energy to bury their dead and care for the  What happens in the summer of 2016, when the temperatures rise?

Americans may be surprised to know that this sort of thing is not new to our shores.

On 1 October 2005, in the heartland of America an apparent convert to Islam, Joel Henry Hinrichs III played the role of bomber with a case of premature detonation outside the University of Oklahoma football stadium just before half time of a game between the Sooners and the Wildcats.

Hinrichs Crimescene Overview Map created by
Let that sink in. Look at his associates (who disappeared).  Look at his methods (TATP - the jihadis current weapon of choice).  This was no mistake.  The people, the planning and support infrastructure, the ideology is already here.  It is equivalent I suppose to being told that you only have a slight case of a virulent, fatal disease.  Take a look at Hinrich's picture. Does he more closely resemble an Eagle Scout, or "Sgt" Bowe Bergdahl?

Now that you have read through the post-event analysis of the Hinrichs bombing attempt and have some mental template of what is and where it is likely going,  take a detour through John Robb's work, it provides some conceptual models to analyze state instability that you do not want to miss.  Consider your own nation state after you read Bracken's work as well as the possible trajectories of other nation states today and mull over how stable (or not) they are. In your analysis, list your assumptions and do your best to put your biases aside so that you can get as close as you can to the Truth of the matter.  It is OK to make it a working document and come back to it time and again with fresh eyes.

In closing, I highly recommend that you read Bracken's essays, starting with Tet take Two, Islam's 2016 European Offensive.  He speaks with a clarity and purpose that Americans and Europeans need to read, as unpleasant as the facts and scenarios he illustrates are.  After all, life is NOT all Skittles and rainbow unicorns.  Never was, never will be.  You can find his books at Amazon, his essays can be read at his home page Enemies Foreign and Domestic.


More self education: Link to published post reviewing the US House Committee Report on Combat Terrorism and Foreign Fighter Travel about danger posed by Muslims living inside the US.

Link to how jihadis could exploit stolen propane tanks.

Commentary on Matt Bracken's essay "Tet Take Two" was penned by StopShouting contributor and #FAB50 Blog Award Winner Partyzantski, retired Mustang, former FID embedded military Advisor, SASO trainer and scenario developer, Electronic Warfare Aviator, PME instructor, certified Force Protection and Anti-terrorism officer and combat seasoned USMC (0202) field grade intelligence officer. When not blogging or maintaining weapons proficiency at the range, he enjoys cat herding and travel to off-the-beaten-track locales. You can follow him on Twitter @Partyzantski

You may also enjoy reading Partyzantski's previously published "SHTF Self-Education Series" Book Reviews HERE.

Some previously published blog posts about topics related to Islam and terror HERE, including "Clear as Bell" - Why Islam and Progressives ideologically align; a discussion of the US House of Representatives Report on Foreign Fighters, and what those multiple instances of stolen propane tanks could be used for in the future.

Thanks for reading and sharing with others by clicking on one of the social media sharing icons (Twitter, Facebook, Google+ etc) found at the end of the post. Shopping through one of our Amazon Links with no out of pocket cost to you is greatly appreciated and helps support our little blog. Follow our latest posts by signing up through the "Email signup" bar on the right hand side of the blog.Your information and/or email is kept confidential and is not sold, marketed and/or shared with anyone. 

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Fix. Bayonets.
 Never Retreat.  Never Surrender.



Matt Bracken said...

Thanks for writing this. Time is short. The explosion is not going to be stopped at this point, but the blast might be mitigated, at least.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the information- worthy of reading, saving and sharing.

Anonymous said...

Good info, will pass via email on to others and even print copies to hand out. It seems the EU is toast, too little too late much out of control, even if the "blast is mitigated" there will be mass fatalities and take years to fix if even then, depending on the leadership and so far the leaders are in partnership with the Islamic agenda to destroy nationalism. It seems like an EU Islamic caliphate is in the making- time will tell.

Anonymous said...

I'm reminded of the intent of the massive bomb that exploded beneath the World Trade Center Tower in February, 1993: at least 50,000 dead, upwards of 250,000 dead.

I believe that I would not be typing this note as I would have not have read your blog-post had that bomb succeeded in toppling one tower onto the other when both were full on that day.

Anonymous said...

I would only disagree on one point, in the Paris attacks the attackers were killed on site by police or were tracked down and killed.

The author extrapolates this into 70,000 dead jihadis of a force of 80,000 in a Tet-style offensive.

However, if there were 80,000 attacks in one short time period, there is no way the police could respond (and in fact the police / military stations would likely be bombed to prevent a coordinated response), there aren't even that many police. The call for help to most attacks would be left unanswered, leaving the jihadis free to roam and continue the mayhem

So the jihadi death toll would be much, much smaller in a disarmed Europe.

Anonymous said...

An excellent, well laid out summary. I found your blog by reading the link at another site. It appears that people are getting bogged down in the reeds arguing over minutae, which allows them to avoid the big picture you sketched out.... because it's just too damn frightening for most people to digest. The news comes out this morning that security forces in Sweden believe "Malmo is lost". Like many others, I believe that the Jihadi movements are going to join forces with the #BLM types here, and "your skin color will be your uniform" and video-simulated violence is played out in real life.

Partyzantski said...

To Anonymous commenter at 12 Jan, 11:46 AM

You bring up a great point that I missed in that article. The knock-on chaos effect of mass, multiple attacks would surely leave the Police and security forces unable to cope, unable to coordinate. The perps from one attack could just move "one city to the right", effectively and stymie the hell out of police. They could even fall in on existing infrastructure and facilitation networks to a degree.

Mix in some taqiyya and kitman, disguising themselves as ordinary Christians will add to the effect. Language and accent will be the final arbiter of identification, friend or foe in this. I doubt many of the operatives are native speakers of European languages. The ones that are will be the cell leaders and facilitators of the follow on echelons.

Anonymous said...

Just found your blog post via Twitter. The scenario you present is frightening, and like many others, would prefer to ignore the math/metrics. Not sure what one person can do.

Hollywood6 said...

PZ excellent thesis.

phann son said...

I would only disagree on one point, in the Paris attacks the attackers were killed on site by police or were tracked down and killed.


Hollywood6 said...

After reading excerpts from Matt's new book, PZ your thesis is on the event horizon.